According to @KobeissiLetter, October has been the stock market’s most volatile month, with S&P 500 volatility running 33% above the average of the other 11 months since 1945, highlighting an elevated risk window for traders, source: The Kobeissi Letter. The next most volatile month historically is January at 16% above average, source: The Kobeissi Letter. In Presidential Year 1, October is typically the third-weakest month, posting an average S&P 500 return of -0.58% since 1929 while finishing positive 54% of the time, source: The Kobeissi Letter. Following strong rallies like the roughly 35% gain since April, the S&P 500 has historically slipped 0.60% in October but averaged a 3.0% advance in Q4, source: Carson Investment Research cited by The Kobeissi Letter. For crypto traders, elevated equity volatility can transmit to digital assets as stock-crypto co-movement strengthens during stress, increasing risk for BTC and ETH around macro shocks, source: International Monetary Fund and The Kobeissi Letter.

According to @business, US equities have shrugged off warnings for the past five months, but the rally is cooling as October turbulence and earnings season approach, prompting caution from Wall Street veterans; source: Bloomberg/@business tweet dated Sep 27, 2025. Equity–crypto correlations rose during 2022 risk episodes and remained time‑varying into 2024, implying potential spillovers to BTC and ETH if US stocks wobble; source: Kaiko research on BTC–equity correlations (2022–2024). Traders can monitor S&P 500 futures and the VIX to track risk sentiment into earnings, with VIX representing the market’s 30‑day expected volatility of S&P 500 options; source: CME Group E‑mini S&P 500 contract information and Cboe VIX methodology. Crypto market participants should watch for cross‑asset moves during earnings headlines as correlation clusters can tighten quickly in risk‑off regimes; source: Kaiko cross‑asset correlation updates (2022–2024).